Departing legislators set stage for critical GOP primary showdowns

We may never know their motivation. Some were obviously frustrated by the rapid deterioration of legislative decorum and rise of lawmaker-on-lawmaker verbal attacks. Others may be weary of campaigning and the high cost of races, or want to devote time to other pursuits.

The departures could have a dramatic impact on which faction of the Republican Party will be in charge: the majority Wyoming Caucus with its classically conservative beliefs, or the far-right Freedom Caucus, which only needs a net gain of six seats to take control of the House.

The House’s five Democrats have formed alliances with the Wyoming Caucus to dilute the Freedom Caucus’ influence on hot-button social issues.

The Senate does not have a Freedom Caucus, but senators who share its political views are almost equally divided with more mainstream Republicans.

Several lawmakers not seeking re-election are from the traditional wing of the Republican Party, known for its pro-business, small government and local control values, with less ideological rigidity than the Freedom Caucus. The latter faction is uncompromising in its anti-abortion and pro-gun stances, and embraces false claims of rampant election fraud and the “dangers” of lifesaving vaccines.

Some Wyoming Caucus members are leaving the House, but not state politics. House Speaker Albert Sommers, R-Pinedale, is considering a bid for the Senate seat being given up by Sen. Fred Baldwin, R-Kemmerer.

Sommers has endorsed Boulder rancher Cat Urbigkit for his HD 20 seat. She will face Mike Schmid, a La Barge oilman who aligns with the Freedom Caucus. He lost the 2022 primary to Sommers by 720 votes.

Another Wyoming Caucus member, Rep. Jared Olsen, R-Cheyenne, announced his candidacy for Senate District 8, which Sen. Affie Ellis, R-Cheyenne, is vacating.

Sen. Dave Kinskey, R-Sheridan, is also leaving. He was a traditionally conservative voice in the Senate, but joined hard-liners opposing the budget and pushing to eliminate gun-free zones.

One Freedom Caucus strength is its ability to organize. I have no doubt it will have a candidate in the primary for every available legislative seat.

But the caucus also has a significant Wyoming political liability: about one-third of its members are not Wyoming natives. Rep. Jeanette Ward, R-Casper, brags she’s a “political refugee from fascist Illinois,” which openly makes her a carpetbagger. Many Wyoming voters are suspicious of new arrivals.

Laurie Bratten, a Colorado GOP operative before she moved here in 2019, is running in HD 51. The seat is held by Rep. Cyrus Western, R-Big Horn, House majority whip. But Western, a Wyoming Caucus member, recently said he won’t seek re-election because he wants to focus on starting a family.

The Freedom Caucus is targeting several incumbents, setting up showdowns that will be key in determining House leadership.

Rep. Bob Nicholas, R-Cheyenne, co-chair of the Joint Appropriations Committee, is opposed by state GOP Executive Director Kathy Russell.

Rep. Dan Zwonitzer, R-Cheyenne, who is routinely bashed by the Freedom Caucus, will be challenged by Ann Lucas of the state GOP central committee.

Rep. Barry Crago, R-Buffalo, will face Mark Jones, a Wyoming lobbyist for Gun Owners of America who moved here from North Carolina.

Whichever faction of the Wyoming GOP wins the most House seats will determine the next speaker. The contest will probably be between Speaker Pro Tem Clark Stith, R-Rock Springs, and Rep. Chip Neiman, R-Hulett, elected House majority floor leader last year even though the Freedom Caucus did not hold a majority.

All signs point to an extremely close election to determine the Legislature’s political agenda. People who want to focus on actually governing — not the circus sideshow the Freedom Caucus leads by trying to pass anti-vaccine bills, squash LGBTQ rights, ban books and rewrite the nation’s racial history — need to run for the Legislature.

To keep extremists from winning control, people must vote. Last year, the far-right won its long battle to ban “crossover” voting to keep Democrats from having a say in picking Republican nominees. Registered voters who switched their party affiliation on primary day must now decide which one they will vote in by May 15. That’s the day before the candidate filing period begins, so people won’t even know who’s running.

The state GOP pushed the change because they knew if Democrats crossed over, they would oppose Freedom Caucus candidates. For this cynical political calculation to fail, Democratic voters who don’t have contested legislative primaries or other races they care about still have a chance to influence which GOP faction makes it to the most general election ballots.

It may not be enough to prevent the Freedom Caucus from taking control, but it’s the only door the far-right has left open that might keep it from happening.