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Expert: Expect more precipitation, longer periods of drought
By Carrie Haderlie
Boomerang Staff Writer
Imagine that the earth’s climate system is a six-sided die.
“Two faces say warm, two normal, two cold. That is your normal climate,” Brad Udall, director of the CU-NOAA Western Water Assessment, said Monday to a crowd at the annual University of Wyoming Strook Forum on Lands and People.
“We have now changed it. Now it says, three warm, two normal and one cold,” Udall said, speaking about climate change and an expected global warming of seven degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, and the effect both will have on precipitation patterns in the west.
“The cold face can still come up, and it has,” Udall said. “This natural climate variability is going to be superimposed on top of climate change. In some cases, it’ll hurt us, it’ll make that climate change worse. In some cases, it’ll actually mask it.”
In an introduction for Udall, Jason Shogren, Strook professor of natural resource conservation and management at UW, said that there is little debate that climate change is upon us, but added that he would not address it if the change is one that can be attributed to man.
“The question is, what does that mean to water management in the west and in Wyoming,” Shogren said.
Projected climate change will mean an alteration in long-term weather patterns in North America, including higher amounts of precipitation but greater flood-and-drought cycles, Udall said. To illustrate his point, Udall said to imagine that the atmosphere is an enormous sponge above your head.
“It turns out that as you warm the atmosphere, that sponge gets bigger. And not just a little bit bigger, but a lot bigger. That has two implications,” Udall said.
One is that there will be greater evaporation.
“And two, when you go to wring that sponge out, you actually get more precipitation,” Udall said. “We know we are going to see more intense precipitation and more flooding.”
Consistent with this forecasting is the 6.64 inches of moisture that Chicago got last week in one day, Udall said.
But “we are going to see more intense drying and drought, especially in big continental areas in the summertime,” Udall said. “You are going to see more rain and less snow in January and reductions in snow covered areas. Generally, you are going to see earlier runoff.”
There are only a few places on the planet where precipitation won’t actually increase over time, Udall said. But the cycle changes will mean more time in between rains.
“We are going to see more days between precipitation, the longer droughts,” followed by flooding, Udall said. The American Southwest, he said, will probably see a spike during those droughts that may average 95-degree temperatures.
“If you think you are going to get in your Phoenix swimming pool and cool off after it’s been an average of 95, you’re not,” Udall said. “You are going to go stew in it.”
This, Udall said, might lead people from the Southwest to move to Colorado and Wyoming.
The mid-range projection for North America is that temperatures will rise about seven degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, he said.
“To give you an idea of how warm that is, the last ice age was about nine degrees colder than now,” Udall said. “That is quite the difference in warming.”
But warming and climate change is not a new idea, he added.
“Do not lose sight of the fact that the idea that the earth was going to get warmer goes back 200 years,” Udall said. “The theory of global warming is 200 years in the making. It is not going to get overturned by any one study. It will get tweaked and modified.”
But rest assured that the earth’s future is quite clear, despite any current battles going on in the media, on university campuses or in the government, Udall said.
“It is going to get a lot warmer,” he said.
Carrie Haderlie’s e-mail address is lbedit11@laramieboomerang.com
“Two faces say warm, two normal, two cold. That is your normal climate,” Brad Udall, director of the CU-NOAA Western Water Assessment, said Monday to a crowd at the annual University of Wyoming Strook Forum on Lands and People.
“We have now changed it. Now it says, three warm, two normal and one cold,” Udall said, speaking about climate change and an expected global warming of seven degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, and the effect both will have on precipitation patterns in the west.
“The cold face can still come up, and it has,” Udall said. “This natural climate variability is going to be superimposed on top of climate change. In some cases, it’ll hurt us, it’ll make that climate change worse. In some cases, it’ll actually mask it.”
In an introduction for Udall, Jason Shogren, Strook professor of natural resource conservation and management at UW, said that there is little debate that climate change is upon us, but added that he would not address it if the change is one that can be attributed to man.
“The question is, what does that mean to water management in the west and in Wyoming,” Shogren said.
Projected climate change will mean an alteration in long-term weather patterns in North America, including higher amounts of precipitation but greater flood-and-drought cycles, Udall said. To illustrate his point, Udall said to imagine that the atmosphere is an enormous sponge above your head.
“It turns out that as you warm the atmosphere, that sponge gets bigger. And not just a little bit bigger, but a lot bigger. That has two implications,” Udall said.
One is that there will be greater evaporation.
“And two, when you go to wring that sponge out, you actually get more precipitation,” Udall said. “We know we are going to see more intense precipitation and more flooding.”
Consistent with this forecasting is the 6.64 inches of moisture that Chicago got last week in one day, Udall said.
But “we are going to see more intense drying and drought, especially in big continental areas in the summertime,” Udall said. “You are going to see more rain and less snow in January and reductions in snow covered areas. Generally, you are going to see earlier runoff.”
There are only a few places on the planet where precipitation won’t actually increase over time, Udall said. But the cycle changes will mean more time in between rains.
“We are going to see more days between precipitation, the longer droughts,” followed by flooding, Udall said. The American Southwest, he said, will probably see a spike during those droughts that may average 95-degree temperatures.
“If you think you are going to get in your Phoenix swimming pool and cool off after it’s been an average of 95, you’re not,” Udall said. “You are going to go stew in it.”
This, Udall said, might lead people from the Southwest to move to Colorado and Wyoming.
The mid-range projection for North America is that temperatures will rise about seven degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, he said.
“To give you an idea of how warm that is, the last ice age was about nine degrees colder than now,” Udall said. “That is quite the difference in warming.”
But warming and climate change is not a new idea, he added.
“Do not lose sight of the fact that the idea that the earth was going to get warmer goes back 200 years,” Udall said. “The theory of global warming is 200 years in the making. It is not going to get overturned by any one study. It will get tweaked and modified.”
But rest assured that the earth’s future is quite clear, despite any current battles going on in the media, on university campuses or in the government, Udall said.
“It is going to get a lot warmer,” he said.
Carrie Haderlie’s e-mail address is lbedit11@laramieboomerang.com
